Virginia
Source: IPEDS Completions, 3-yr avg AY 2022–25 (NCES; 2024–25 provisional), bachelor’s degrees, CIP 14 + 11; China 33.2%: PRC Ministry of Education, 2022 bachelor’s graduates by discipline (NSF NCSES S&E Indicators Fig. HED-30: 32.8%, 2020); Population: Census NST-EST2025.
Virginia at China’s rate would graduate 19,488 engineers a year. It graduates 7,432.
Virginia produces 7,432 engineering and computer science bachelor's degrees a year out of 58,700 total, a mid-pack engineering producer, from 44 institutions. At China's rate it would produce 19,488. Output is growing (+13.3% over three years). Gap Score: 38% of the China benchmark. Its own economy is projected to open 22,350 engineering, computing and technician jobs a year through 2034; in-state degrees, associate and bachelor's together, cover 47% of them.
The gap against China’s benchmark
Three-year trend: eng+CS share of degrees
Virginia is missing 12,057 engineers a year at China's rate, roughly 6x the annual output of Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
Where Virginia’s engineers are made.
44 institutions produce engineering or computer science bachelor’s degrees in Virginia. The top 8 account for 88% of output.
Every producing institution. Circle area = eng+CS bachelor’s degrees per year
Top producers
| # | Institution | Eng+CS / yr | % of its degrees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University | 2,145 | 27.5% |
| 2 | George Mason University | 1,147 | 18.9% |
| 3 | University of Virginia-Main Campus | 875 | 19.7% |
| 4 | Old Dominion University | 565 | 16.0% |
| 5 | Virginia Commonwealth University | 536 | 11.4% |
| 6 | ECPI University | 502 | 37.1% |
| 7 | Liberty University | 403 | 3.8% |
| 8 | James Madison University | 359 | 7.7% |
Jobs vs. degrees
Virginia's own labor-market projection, 2024–2034, for engineers, computer occupations and engineering technicians, against the degrees the state produces at every level.
Openings against output
Where the openings are
| Occupation | Openings / yr |
|---|---|
| Software Developers | 6,790 |
| Information Security Analysts | 1,820 |
| Computer Systems Analysts | 1,630 |
| Computer User Support Specialists | 1,480 |
| Computer Occupations, All Other | 1,210 |
| Civil Engineers | 820 |
Coverage: degrees ÷ openings
Openings are the state labor agency’s own 10-year projection: new jobs plus replacing workers who retire or leave the field (BLS method). Not every opening goes to a new graduate, so this is a coverage measure; it does not count vacant positions. Occupations: engineers (SOC 17-2), computer occupations (SOC 15-12) and engineering technicians (SOC 17-3, the associate-degree tier), the jobs CIP 14 + 11 degrees feed; degrees here include associate degrees to match. Source: Virginia labor-market projections via Projections Central (U.S. Dept. of Labor).
Virginia's largest incentives went to data centers and HQ2
Virginia's largest incentives are a data-center sales-tax exemption now costing about $1.9B a year, Amazon's 25,000-job HQ2 with a $1.1B state pledge for computer-science degrees, and a $2.17B Micron fab. Meanwhile federal cuts erased 23,500 civilian jobs in 2025 and the state still covers well under half its engineering openings.
The drain.
Virginia loses nearly half of its college graduates within a decade, engineering grads leave faster than average, and the 2025 federal-workforce contraction turned Northern Virginia into a net exporter of people and jobs.
Sources: Cardinal News analysis of Census Bureau PSEO data (2026); WHRO / Virginia Center for Investigative Journalism (2026); Cardinal News on Weldon Cooper Center forecast (2026)
Who’s covering it.
Reporters already cover this, but no one has combined it into a single number the way the Index does.
The fix, in Virginia.
Add engineering to G3
Virginia's G3 program already makes community college tuition-free in IT, skilled trades and manufacturing for households under about $120,000 across all 23 VCCS campuses. Extend it to engineering-transfer and technician tracks with a Digital ROTC service-for-tuition commitment, so the 29% of Virginia's eng+CS output that comes from associate degrees is bound to in-state employers like Micron and the shipyard.
Tie TTIP to staying
TTIP has paid more than $550M for CS degrees but tracks no in-state employment, and only 59% of engineering grads are still in Virginia a year out. Convert the next tranche into service scholarships: tuition covered in exchange for two to four years with a Virginia data-center operator, defense contractor or utility, with campuses paid for graduates who stay in Virginia rather than for diplomas alone.
Charge data centers for pipeline
A $1.9B-a-year exemption that produces about 25 direct jobs per facility should carry a talent condition. Require exemption claimants to fund Digital ROTC cohorts at Northern Virginia and Laurel Ridge community colleges and hire from them, so the tax break pays for engineers who stay after construction ends.
What Digital ROTC would fund
Digital ROTC: federal student loans that cover two years of engineering, computer science, or cybersecurity school at a community college, whether those years end in an associate degree or transfer into a bachelor’s program. The loans are forgiven in full after 24 to 36 months of service in government technology roles. In Virginia, 29% of engineering-track credentials are associate degrees today. Digital ROTC is built to expand that community-college route.