Tennessee
Source: IPEDS Completions, 3-yr avg AY 2022–25 (NCES; 2024–25 provisional), bachelor’s degrees, CIP 14 + 11; China 33.2%: PRC Ministry of Education, 2022 bachelor’s graduates by discipline (NSF NCSES S&E Indicators Fig. HED-30: 32.8%, 2020); Population: Census NST-EST2025.
Tennessee at China’s rate would graduate 11,523 engineers a year. It graduates 2,867.
Tennessee produces 2,867 engineering and computer science bachelor's degrees a year out of 34,708 total, among the weakest engineering producers in the country, from 34 institutions. At China's rate it would produce 11,523. Output is growing (+16.2% over three years). Gap Score: 25% of the China benchmark. Its own economy is projected to open 8,380 engineering, computing and technician jobs a year through 2034; in-state degrees, associate and bachelor's together, cover 39% of them.
The gap against China’s benchmark
Three-year trend: eng+CS share of degrees
Tennessee is missing 8,657 engineers a year at China's rate, roughly 11x the annual output of The University of Tennessee-Knoxville.
Where Tennessee’s engineers are made.
34 institutions produce engineering or computer science bachelor’s degrees in Tennessee. The top 8 account for 83% of output.
Every producing institution. Circle area = eng+CS bachelor’s degrees per year
Top producers
| # | Institution | Eng+CS / yr | % of its degrees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The University of Tennessee-Knoxville | 786 | 12.8% |
| 2 | Tennessee Technological University | 428 | 23.2% |
| 3 | Vanderbilt University | 379 | 20.7% |
| 4 | University of Memphis | 244 | 8.3% |
| 5 | The University of Tennessee-Chattanooga | 211 | 9.8% |
| 6 | Middle Tennessee State University | 156 | 3.8% |
| 7 | East Tennessee State University | 88 | 3.9% |
| 8 | Austin Peay State University | 74 | 5.4% |
Jobs vs. degrees
Tennessee's own labor-market projection, 2024–2034, for engineers, computer occupations and engineering technicians, against the degrees the state produces at every level.
Openings against output
Where the openings are
| Occupation | Openings / yr |
|---|---|
| Software Developers | 1,200 |
| Computer Occupations, All Other | 860 |
| Computer User Support Specialists | 640 |
| Computer Systems Analysts | 600 |
| Industrial Engineers | 510 |
| Engineers, All Other | 310 |
Coverage: degrees ÷ openings
Openings are the state labor agency’s own 10-year projection: new jobs plus replacing workers who retire or leave the field (BLS method). Not every opening goes to a new graduate, so this is a coverage measure; it does not count vacant positions. Occupations: engineers (SOC 17-2), computer occupations (SOC 15-12) and engineering technicians (SOC 17-3, the associate-degree tier), the jobs CIP 14 + 11 degrees feed; degrees here include associate degrees to match. Source: Tennessee labor-market projections via Projections Central (U.S. Dept. of Labor).
Tennessee's largest incentive deals rely on engineers from other states
Tennessee has spent the decade paying to attract employers: a $900 million package for Ford, a $12 billion AI campus in Memphis, and a state Nuclear Energy Fund seeding uranium enrichment in Oak Ridge. Its own campuses turn out roughly 2,900 engineering and computing bachelor's degrees a year, and its megaproject employers post their design jobs in other states.
The drain.
Tennessee keeps the graduates it trains for technical work, and the state leads the country in tech employment growth. The weak link is the top of the pipeline: too few residents hold a four year degree, and the engineering workforce is small relative to the projects being announced.
Sources: Tennessee Board of Regents and TN Dept of Labor; Sycamore Institute; THEC 2025 Academic Supply for Occupational Demand Report; ThinkTennessee
Who’s covering it.
Reporters already cover this, but no one has combined it into a single number the way the Index does.
The fix, in Tennessee.
Tie FastTrack to pipeline
Tennessee already writes clawbacks into deals like Ford's, where missing 80 percent of 5,800 jobs by 2032 costs the company $675 million. Add a parallel condition: every incentive above $50 million funds Digital ROTC seats and paid engineering co-ops at in-state schools, with the count reported alongside the job count. Companies that bring in their design teams from other states should pay to train local engineers.
Service for tuition at TCATs
Tennessee Promise and Reconnect already make community college and TCAT tuition free, and 76 percent of community college graduates and 73 percent of TCAT graduates are still working in Tennessee five years later. Layer Digital ROTC on top: a stipend and a guaranteed technician or apprentice slot at BlueOval City, Oak Ridge, or a data center operator, in exchange for a three year service commitment in state. The retention programs already exist.
Fund nuclear seats with service
The state's Nuclear Energy Fund is paying to launch a nuclear engineering minor at UT Knoxville and a nuclear engineering bachelor's at Tennessee Tech, for a cluster that had roughly 280 nuclear engineering jobs in 2023 and is adding hundreds at Centrus and K-25. Attach a Digital ROTC service obligation to those seats so the graduates the fund creates owe their first years to Tennessee employers, not to recruiters in other states.
What Digital ROTC would fund
Digital ROTC: federal student loans that cover two years of engineering, computer science, or cybersecurity school at a community college, whether those years end in an associate degree or transfer into a bachelor’s program. The loans are forgiven in full after 24 to 36 months of service in government technology roles. In Tennessee, 12% of engineering-track credentials are associate degrees today. Digital ROTC is built to expand that community-college route.