Minnesota
Source: IPEDS Completions, 3-yr avg AY 2022–25 (NCES; 2024–25 provisional), bachelor’s degrees, CIP 14 + 11; China 33.2%: PRC Ministry of Education, 2022 bachelor’s graduates by discipline (NSF NCSES S&E Indicators Fig. HED-30: 32.8%, 2020); Population: Census NST-EST2025.
Minnesota at China’s rate would graduate 9,517 engineers a year. It graduates 3,324.
Minnesota produces 3,324 engineering and computer science bachelor's degrees a year out of 28,665 total, a mid-pack engineering producer, from 31 institutions. At China's rate it would produce 9,517. Output is shrinking (-3.3% over three years). Gap Score: 35% of the China benchmark. Its own economy is projected to open 9,070 engineering, computing and technician jobs a year through 2034; in-state degrees, associate and bachelor's together, cover 45% of them.
The gap against China’s benchmark
Three-year trend: eng+CS share of degrees
Minnesota is missing 6,192 engineers a year at China's rate, roughly 4x the annual output of University of Minnesota-Twin Cities.
Where Minnesota’s engineers are made.
31 institutions produce engineering or computer science bachelor’s degrees in Minnesota. The top 8 account for 87% of output.
Every producing institution. Circle area = eng+CS bachelor’s degrees per year
Top producers
| # | Institution | Eng+CS / yr | % of its degrees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Minnesota-Twin Cities | 1,524 | 20.4% |
| 2 | University of Minnesota-Duluth | 376 | 20.5% |
| 3 | Metropolitan State University | 249 | 17.1% |
| 4 | Minnesota State University-Mankato | 223 | 8.7% |
| 5 | University of St Thomas | 193 | 14.2% |
| 6 | Saint Cloud State University | 180 | 14.7% |
| 7 | Carleton College | 77 | 16.2% |
| 8 | Winona State University | 71 | 5.6% |
Jobs vs. degrees
Minnesota's own labor-market projection, 2024–2034, for engineers, computer occupations and engineering technicians, against the degrees the state produces at every level.
Openings against output
Where the openings are
| Occupation | Openings / yr |
|---|---|
| Software Developers | 2,360 |
| Industrial Engineers | 1,230 |
| Computer User Support Specialists | 790 |
| Computer Systems Analysts | 640 |
| Industrial Engineering Technicians | 460 |
| Mechanical Engineers | 360 |
Coverage: degrees ÷ openings
Openings are the state labor agency’s own 10-year projection: new jobs plus replacing workers who retire or leave the field (BLS method). Not every opening goes to a new graduate, so this is a coverage measure; it does not count vacant positions. Occupations: engineers (SOC 17-2), computer occupations (SOC 15-12) and engineering technicians (SOC 17-3, the associate-degree tier), the jobs CIP 14 + 11 degrees feed; degrees here include associate degrees to match. Source: Minnesota labor-market projections via Projections Central (U.S. Dept. of Labor).
Minnesota's $400M chip fund and data center tax breaks
Minnesota created a $400M Minnesota Forward Fund to match federal CHIPS money at Bloomington's fabs and extended data-center sales-tax breaks to 2077, a subsidy already costing about $100M a year. These projects need engineers, but the state's own Chamber ranks Minnesota 33rd in workforce growth and finds its working-age population shrinking.
The drain.
Minnesota keeps most of its graduates at first and then slowly loses them: University of Minnesota alumni employment in-state falls from three quarters to barely half over 15 years, and the state shed more than 37,000 working-age adults to other states this decade before a modest 2025 rebound.
Sources: University of Minnesota IDR, A Degree with Staying Power; Pioneer Press / Minnesota Chamber; Minnesota Reformer / U.S. Census Bureau
Who’s covering it.
Reporters already cover this, but no one has combined it into a single number the way the Index does.
The fix, in Minnesota.
Require Forward Fund awards to pay for training
The $400M Minnesota Forward Fund has already sent $75M to Polar and $19M to SkyWater with no pipeline clause. Require every award to fund Digital ROTC service-for-tuition seats at Minnesota State colleges (Normandale, Hennepin Tech, Dakota County Tech) so the technicians and process engineers those fabs need graduate owing years of work in Bloomington.
Charge data centers for talent
Data-center exemptions cost $114M in FY2025 and run to 2077 while Meta's $800M Rosemount campus yields ~100 permanent jobs. Condition the exemption on a per-facility contribution to a Digital ROTC scholarship pool for UMN and Minnesota State electrical, mechanical and computer engineering students who commit to in-state work after graduation.
Reverse the 15-year decline in retention
UMN grads employed in Minnesota fall from 74% one year out to 55% at 15 years, and the state lost 37,202 working-age adults this decade. Route existing state aid for engineering and CS majors at UMN Twin Cities and Duluth through service-for-tuition contracts, so a Minnesota-paid degree comes with a Minnesota service term with employers like Medtronic, 3M, Xcel and the Bloomington fabs.
What Digital ROTC would fund
Digital ROTC: federal student loans that cover two years of engineering, computer science, or cybersecurity school at a community college, whether those years end in an associate degree or transfer into a bachelor’s program. The loans are forgiven in full after 24 to 36 months of service in government technology roles. In Minnesota, 19% of engineering-track credentials are associate degrees today. Digital ROTC is built to expand that community-college route.