Pennsylvania
Source: IPEDS Completions, 3-yr avg AY 2022–25 (NCES; 2024–25 provisional), bachelor’s degrees, CIP 14 + 11; China 33.2%: PRC Ministry of Education, 2022 bachelor’s graduates by discipline (NSF NCSES S&E Indicators Fig. HED-30: 32.8%, 2020); Population: Census NST-EST2025.
Pennsylvania at China’s rate would graduate 26,436 engineers a year. It graduates 11,038.
Pennsylvania produces 11,038 engineering and computer science bachelor's degrees a year out of 79,625 total, one of America's strongest engineering producers, from 104 institutions. At China's rate it would produce 26,436. Output is growing (+2.2% over three years). Gap Score: 42% of the China benchmark. Its own economy is projected to open 16,720 engineering, computing and technician jobs a year through 2034; in-state degrees, associate and bachelor's together, cover 74% of them.
The gap against China’s benchmark
Three-year trend: eng+CS share of degrees
Pennsylvania is missing 15,397 engineers a year at China's rate, roughly 5x the annual output of Pennsylvania State University-Main Campus.
Where Pennsylvania’s engineers are made.
104 institutions produce engineering or computer science bachelor’s degrees in Pennsylvania. The top 8 account for 66% of output.
Every producing institution. Circle area = eng+CS bachelor’s degrees per year
Top producers
| # | Institution | Eng+CS / yr | % of its degrees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pennsylvania State University-Main Campus | 2,817 | 25.9% |
| 2 | University of Pittsburgh-Pittsburgh Campus | 1,098 | 22.1% |
| 3 | Drexel University | 929 | 29.8% |
| 4 | Carnegie Mellon University | 685 | 40.4% |
| 5 | Temple University | 540 | 10.1% |
| 6 | Lehigh University | 486 | 35.7% |
| 7 | University of Pennsylvania | 457 | 16.1% |
| 8 | Villanova University | 320 | 17.8% |
Jobs vs. degrees
Pennsylvania's own labor-market projection, 2024–2034, for engineers, computer occupations and engineering technicians, against the degrees the state produces at every level.
Openings against output
Where the openings are
| Occupation | Openings / yr |
|---|---|
| Software Developers | 3,360 |
| Computer User Support Specialists | 1,750 |
| Computer Occupations, All Other | 1,280 |
| Computer Systems Analysts | 1,220 |
| Industrial Engineers | 950 |
| Mechanical Engineers | 920 |
Coverage: degrees ÷ openings
Openings are the state labor agency’s own 10-year projection: new jobs plus replacing workers who retire or leave the field (BLS method). Not every opening goes to a new graduate, so this is a coverage measure; it does not count vacant positions. Occupations: engineers (SOC 17-2), computer occupations (SOC 15-12) and engineering technicians (SOC 17-3, the associate-degree tier), the jobs CIP 14 + 11 degrees feed; degrees here include associate degrees to match. Source: Pennsylvania labor-market projections via Projections Central (U.S. Dept. of Labor).
Pennsylvania drew $38 billion in projects while its engineering output barely grew
Harrisburg has courted the largest private investments in state history: Amazon's $20B AI campuses, gas-to-datacenter conversions at Homer City and Shippingport, a $5B shipyard build-out, and a data-center sales-tax break projected to cost $2B. The state's engineering pipeline grew only 2.2% over three years.
The drain.
Pennsylvania attracts students but loses graduates: net domestic migration has been negative every year since 2021, the working-age population is projected to shrink through 2035, and the Philadelphia region keeps only half of its college graduates, with computer science grads the least likely to stay.
Sources: Center for Rural Pennsylvania; PA Independent Fiscal Office; Campus Philly via Technical.ly
Who’s covering it.
Reporters already cover this, but no one has combined it into a single number the way the Index does.
The fix, in Pennsylvania.
Tie the $2B tax break to the pipeline
Pennsylvania's data-center sales-tax exemption is projected to cost $2B by 2031 with no workforce strings. Condition it on funding Digital ROTC service-for-tuition seats at community colleges in Luzerne, Bucks, Indiana and Beaver counties, so the campuses at Salem Township, Falls Township, Homer City and Shippingport are staffed by Pennsylvanians rather than imported engineers.
Fund shipyard and nuclear engineering seats
Hanwha needs to grow from ~2,000 to 10,000 workers and Westinghouse's AP1000 program runs from Cranberry. A Digital ROTC track through Community College of Philadelphia, Delaware County CC and CCAC, with tuition paid for a service commitment at the Navy Yard or in the nuclear supply chain, turns those hiring targets into in-state graduates.
Pay grads to stay
With 50,700 net domestic out-migrants since 2020 and only half of Philly-region grads staying, Pennsylvania should offset the Penn State branch closures with a retention bond: Digital ROTC tuition forgiveness that vests only for engineers who work in Pennsylvania for four years after graduation.
What Digital ROTC would fund
Digital ROTC: federal student loans that cover two years of engineering, computer science, or cybersecurity school at a community college, whether those years end in an associate degree or transfer into a bachelor’s program. The loans are forgiven in full after 24 to 36 months of service in government technology roles. In Pennsylvania, 10% of engineering-track credentials are associate degrees today. Digital ROTC is built to expand that community-college route.