Arizona
Source: IPEDS Completions, 3-yr avg AY 2022–25 (NCES; 2024–25 provisional), bachelor’s degrees, CIP 14 + 11; China 33.2%: PRC Ministry of Education, 2022 bachelor’s graduates by discipline (NSF NCSES S&E Indicators Fig. HED-30: 32.8%, 2020); Population: Census NST-EST2025.
Arizona at China’s rate would graduate 15,052 engineers a year. It graduates 4,574.
Arizona produces 4,574 engineering and computer science bachelor's degrees a year out of 45,338 total, a mid-pack engineering producer, from 8 institutions. At China's rate it would produce 15,052. Output is growing (+9.0% over three years). Gap Score: 30% of the China benchmark. Its own economy is projected to open 11,600 engineering, computing and technician jobs a year through 2034; in-state degrees, associate and bachelor's together, cover 48% of them.
The gap against China’s benchmark
Three-year trend: eng+CS share of degrees
Arizona is missing 10,478 engineers a year at China's rate, roughly 4x the annual output of Arizona State University Campus Immersion.
Where Arizona’s engineers are made.
8 institutions produce engineering or computer science bachelor’s degrees in Arizona. The top 8 account for 100% of output.
Every producing institution. Circle area = eng+CS bachelor’s degrees per year
Top producers
| # | Institution | Eng+CS / yr | % of its degrees |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona State University Campus Immersion | 2,466 | 16.4% |
| 2 | University of Arizona | 947 | 12.1% |
| 3 | Grand Canyon University | 555 | 3.8% |
| 4 | Northern Arizona University | 299 | 5.7% |
| 5 | Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University-Prescott | 260 | 41.3% |
| 6 | University of Advancing Technology | 40 | 34.8% |
| 7 | DeVry University-Arizona | 4 | 35.5% |
| 8 | Ottawa University-Surprise | 3 | 2.1% |
Jobs vs. degrees
Arizona's own labor-market projection, 2024–2034, for engineers, computer occupations and engineering technicians, against the degrees the state produces at every level.
Openings against output
Where the openings are
| Occupation | Openings / yr |
|---|---|
| Software Developers | 2,670 |
| Computer User Support Specialists | 1,330 |
| Computer Systems Analysts | 740 |
| Industrial Engineers | 670 |
| Civil Engineers | 520 |
| Computer Occupations, All Other | 480 |
Coverage: degrees ÷ openings
Openings are the state labor agency’s own 10-year projection: new jobs plus replacing workers who retire or leave the field (BLS method). Not every opening goes to a new graduate, so this is a coverage measure; it does not count vacant positions. Occupations: engineers (SOC 17-2), computer occupations (SOC 15-12) and engineering technicians (SOC 17-3, the associate-degree tier), the jobs CIP 14 + 11 degrees feed; degrees here include associate degrees to match. Source: Arizona labor-market projections via Projections Central (U.S. Dept. of Labor).
Arizona's chip plants need more engineers than it graduates
Arizona has landed the largest foreign direct investment in U.S. history and calls itself a chipmaking gold rush, yet its universities graduate about 4,400 engineers a year while economists warn the fab buildout will run tens of thousands of workers short.
The drain.
Arizona is a net importer of degree holders, but it loses many of the graduates it produces: barely a third of ASU's PhDs are still working in the state a decade after graduation.
Sources: PSEO Coalition Arizona Case Study (Census Post-Secondary Employment Outcomes); University of Arizona Economic and Business Research Center
Who’s covering it.
Reporters already cover this, but no one has combined it into a single number the way the Index does.
The fix, in Arizona.
Condition chip incentives on Arizona grads
TSMC alone carries $6.6B in federal grants and decades of state and local support, yet the state faces a projected 10,000-worker annual shortfall. Arizona should tie every new incentive dollar to funded service-for-tuition seats: employers underwrite an Arizona student's degree and the student commits years of work in-state at the fab.
Scale Quick Start into a career ladder
Maricopa Community Colleges' free 10-day Semiconductor Technician Quick Start certified 587 people in its first year with a 93% completion rate and direct pipelines to Intel and TSMC. A Digital ROTC compact would stack it into paid associate and bachelor's pathways, with tuition covered in exchange for a service commitment at Arizona fabs.
Pay ASU engineers to stay
ASU turns out 2,328 engineering and CS bachelor's a year, but only 63.7% of its bachelor's grads and 32.5% of its PhDs remain in Arizona a decade out. Service-for-tuition contracts cofunded by TSMC, Amkor and Intel would keep more graduates of the nation's largest engineering school working in Arizona.
What Digital ROTC would fund
Digital ROTC: federal student loans that cover two years of engineering, computer science, or cybersecurity school at a community college, whether those years end in an associate degree or transfer into a bachelor’s program. The loans are forgiven in full after 24 to 36 months of service in government technology roles. In Arizona, 18% of engineering-track credentials are associate degrees today. Digital ROTC is built to expand that community-college route.